Outcome Reference

HIP-4 Outcomes, Settlement, and Solvency

This page separates the confirmed outcome baseline from the still-open solvency hypothesis. It is meant to stop the docs from treating every outcome statement as equally solid: the baseline market model is now promoted, while `MergeQuestion` and fallback reconciliation remain the highest-risk open lane.

HIP-4 Outcomes Note Outcome Solvency Review Open Claims Liquidation & ADL

1x isolated-only confirmed

No funding confirmed

Question metadata confirmed

MergeQuestion fallback risk open

1. Confirmed Baseline

Property	Current truth
Risk mode	1x isolated-only, no leverage, no funding.
Settlement authority	`oracleUpdater` posts final settlement.
Post-settlement behavior	Open orders cancel and new orders reject.
Question metadata	`fallbackOutcome`, `namedOutcomes`, and `settledNamedOutcomes` are real surface fields.
User operations	`SplitOutcome`, `MergeOutcome`, `MergeQuestion`, and `NegateOutcome`.

2. Outcome Lifecycle

flowchart TD A[Deploy outcome or question] --> B[Opening auction] B --> C[Continuous trading] C --> D[oracleUpdater posts settlement] D --> E[outcomeSettledCanceled and outcomeSettledRejected] E --> F[Settle positions in collateral token] F --> G[Question-level reconciliation]

Outcomes are settlement-first instruments, not a special case of perp liquidation.
Question metadata is economically meaningful because fallback and named outcomes coexist on testnet.

3. Question and Token Surface

Surface	Role
`fallbackOutcome`	Default question resolution surface when explicit settlement is absent or partial.
`namedOutcomes`	Named multi-outcome question branches.
`settledNamedOutcomes`	Tracks which named outcomes are already settled.
`SplitOutcome` / `MergeOutcome`	Pairwise token mechanics around YES/NO-style claims.
`MergeQuestion`	Question-level reconciliation surface across all relevant outcomes.

4. Active Solvency Hypothesis

The leading current risk is no longer the generic statement "outcomes are risky." It is narrower: question-level reconciliation, especially around MergeQuestion, fallback legs, and settled named outcomes.

Question	Current answer
Is the simple pairwise token path the main suspected bug site?	No. The current hypothesis points above that layer.
Is the baseline outcome model still open?	No. The baseline settlement-driven market model is now promoted as confirmed.
What remains open?	Exact binary identity of the `MergeQuestion` branch and the operational meaning of the fallback-trade guard.